Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Will Duke make the 2025 Final Four?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x028277d300b739e14d350f84c51c510281c01f0911791aa2531e6ee780ace127
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked No | 42c | 5,917$2,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,484.36 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b8…5ce5backed Yes | 59c | 5,700$3,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,314.93 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 38c | 4,787$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,819.78 | 98 | 33.7%33 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…082abacked Yes | 63c | 2,368$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 36c | 2,284$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.53 | 136 | 9.6%13 W · 123 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 74c | 1,945$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.7 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Yes | 55c | 1,824$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.35 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…f347backed No | 46c | 1,747$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.74 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…2cc4backed Yes | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ed…3cc4backed Yes | 56c | 785.72$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 44c | 700$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 44c | 699.97$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.99 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -13.1wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Yes | 55c | 683.64$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.64 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +5.2wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 64c | 625$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 54c | 561.69$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.7 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 35c | 510$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.5 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…7726backed Yes | 54c | 399.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes | 57c | 348.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.19 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 41c | 329.54$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.64 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 54c | 302.55$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.17 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 44c | 216.69$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.34 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 43c | 209.73$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 104 | 29.8%31 W · 73 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f2…2cd0backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 45c | 184.7$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 55c | 182$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed No | 45c | 182$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4698…6c24backed Yes | 62c | 153$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…d072backed Yes | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 56c | 135.71$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa421…b40cbacked No | 46c | 111.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…12a3backed Yes | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c51…087cbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…d832backed Yes | 54c | 99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2245…35cfbacked Yes | 55c | 95.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 55c | 92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…3b31backed Yes | 55c | 90.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5807…d6c7backed Yes | 54c | 86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…a47abacked No | 46c | 73.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…e6c9backed Yes | 55c | 72.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f7…00f9backed Yes | 53c | 63.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 56c | 63.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd630…fe7abacked No | 47c | 57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 64c | 52.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa7…ff18backed Yes | 54c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1524…dc7abacked No | 47c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…a6afbacked No | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…1ebdbacked Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d68…caf0backed No | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…d942backed No | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 46c | 37.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 59c | 37.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 53c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bd…3c32backed Yes | 41c | 32.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 64c | 31.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 71c | 31.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26f9…8b7ebacked No | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…5e7dbacked No | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Duke make the 2025 Final Four?this page
- Will Alabama make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Auburn make the 2025 Final Four?Yes won
- Will Clemson make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Florida make the 2025 Final Four?Yes won
- Will Houston make the 2025 Final Four?Yes won
- Will Iowa State make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Kentucky make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Louisville make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Maryland make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Michigan State make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will St. John's make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Tennessee make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Texas A&M make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Texas Tech make the 2025 Final Four?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.