Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Will Houston make the 2025 Final Four?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b9605a2ac6b763fb2c01d5f5618ec12db0edb6b7cf66f97bc0b01283c71c4e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 1c | 7,913$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.94 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 54c | 1,111$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.95 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f7…00f9backed Yes | 42c | 1,055$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.95 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 47c | 1,022$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.63 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +56%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 57c | 524.17$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.27 | 104 | 29.8%31 W · 73 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 53c | 475.88$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.67 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Yes | 36c | 411.73$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 58c | 392$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 46c | 359.13$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.2 | 136 | 9.6%13 W · 123 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 42c | 332$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.66 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 42c | 262.6$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 69c | 214.08$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 52c | 210.31$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.04 | 98 | 33.7%33 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 44c | 207.74$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.3 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…e0bdbacked No | 59c | 187.49$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.62 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 55c | 125$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +186.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 104$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc19a…b660backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…12a3backed Yes | 61c | 97.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 41c | 88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 46c | 72.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 37c | 59.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 55c | 58.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Yes | 36c | 46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed No | 49c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ec…8692backed Yes | 37c | 40.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +133.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16d1…7758backed No | 47c | 28.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad40…2939backed Yes | 54c | 26.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Houston make the 2025 Final Four?this page
- Will Alabama make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Auburn make the 2025 Final Four?Yes won
- Will Clemson make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Duke make the 2025 Final Four?Yes won
- Will Florida make the 2025 Final Four?Yes won
- Will Iowa State make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Kentucky make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Louisville make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Maryland make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Michigan State make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will St. John's make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Tennessee make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Texas A&M make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Texas Tech make the 2025 Final Four?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.