Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Will Michigan State make the 2025 Final Four?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4148f4f9fe1416a08e2773d04853ebca2fa11111b3586f0c3eb4af8059630d0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $154,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $154,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe918…8009backed Yes | 15c | 70,813$10,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,621.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,823$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 26c | 2,056$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.71 | 136 | 9.6%13 W · 123 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 73c | 1,298$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.01 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 74c | 1,218$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.26 | 98 | 33.7%33 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed No | 75c | 1,050$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b8…5ce5backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8583…a5dbbacked Yes | 3c | 526$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 17c | 517.2$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.28 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked Yes | 32c | 495.92$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.63 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 55c | 477$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.61 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019e…af1dbacked Yes | 15c | 350$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed No | 66c | 321$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.51 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 17c | 210$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 202.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…e0ebbacked No | 76c | 197.36$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…12a3backed No | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8067…7727backed Yes | 17c | 85.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 290 | 12.1%35 W · 255 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 75c | 35.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Michigan State make the 2025 Final Four?this page
- Will Alabama make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Auburn make the 2025 Final Four?Yes won
- Will Clemson make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Duke make the 2025 Final Four?Yes won
- Will Florida make the 2025 Final Four?Yes won
- Will Houston make the 2025 Final Four?Yes won
- Will Iowa State make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Kentucky make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Louisville make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Maryland make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will St. John's make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Tennessee make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Texas A&M make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Texas Tech make the 2025 Final Four?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.