Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Will Tennessee make the 2025 Final Four?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43cae9b753dd13921a7cccedf86c6cbf7efd2338ff5544909358c327d2b9f7d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,625$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc64d…a1c9backed Yes | 41c | 1,670$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.7 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 25c | 1,281$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.11 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 62c | 1,270$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.66 | 98 | 33.7%33 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 26c | 1,147$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.05 | 136 | 9.6%13 W · 123 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Yes | 40c | 1,005$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.92 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +56%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8583…a5dbbacked Yes | 13c | 999.51$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.97 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 79c | 520$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 39c | 464.93$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.32 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 400$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 12c | 270$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b8…5ce5backed Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba0c…a550backed Yes | 40c | 210$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2998…b425backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 21c | 188.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…12a3backed No | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77d8…8274backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 38c | 68.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…1ebdbacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4698…6c24backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Yes | 22c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…a6afbacked No | 74c | 26.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 73c | 24.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…f347backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tennessee make the 2025 Final Four?this page
- Will Alabama make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Auburn make the 2025 Final Four?Yes won
- Will Clemson make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Duke make the 2025 Final Four?Yes won
- Will Florida make the 2025 Final Four?Yes won
- Will Houston make the 2025 Final Four?Yes won
- Will Iowa State make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Kentucky make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Louisville make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Maryland make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Michigan State make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will St. John's make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Texas A&M make the 2025 Final Four?No won
- Will Texas Tech make the 2025 Final Four?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.