World Politics · resolved market
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c9b36943cd88e99e15e54cc6df7dacaa15f1ce4f7578bcb76edb7b0c4c2be3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $344,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $361,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $344,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 10c | 12,279$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.14 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 7c | 9,153$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.1 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…9f4abacked No | 6c | 8,921$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8f…25a7backed No | 6c | 7,776$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe535…6cc0backed No | 7c | 5,283$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 14c | 5,007$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.17 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd27…a9c4backed No | 13c | 4,780$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +171.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d5…312abacked No | 10c | 4,089$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 11cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…41c9backed No | 3c | 4,000$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 3c | 3,330$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.61 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 3,214$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.33 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 63c | 3,035$1,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.47 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 73c | 3,006$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.36 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 17c | 2,839$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.8 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked No | 23c | 2,554$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.24 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 4c | 1,767$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 7c | 1,635$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.32 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1a…88c8backed No | 6c | 1,528$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x275f…ffeabacked No | 5c | 1,481$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…f879backed No | 8c | 1,205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 9c | 1,040$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…9fd0backed No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +1,772.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 23c | 999.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…93c9backed No | 5c | 999.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 6c | 991.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c2…4c90backed No | 5c | 950.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +314.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 78c | 930$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.84 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea0c…bb9bbacked No | 5c | 803$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed No | 5c | 772.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9366…3b90backed No | 7c | 736$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 4c | 704.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…7171backed No | 5c | 617$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe51…e6fdbacked No | 5c | 541$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 3c | 510.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed No | 34c | 504.95$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.33 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed No | 14c | 499.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 5c | 499.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ec…8066backed No | 5c | 466$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5740…6dadbacked No | 6c | 464$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…da99backed No | 6c | 428$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88bc…1a33backed No | 5c | 427.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…23e2backed No | 5c | 414.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 74c | 408.44$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.19 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…e3ccbacked No | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1887…164bbacked No | 5c | 395$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e55…2b2abacked No | 13c | 376.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c1…790ebacked No | 6c | 358$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1528…38ebbacked No | 4c | 349$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98c9…1bbfbacked No | 4c | 342$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +338.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52a…3d78backed No | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked No | 57c | 300$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.31 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f5…6a82backed No | 9c | 297$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 6c | 289$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 78c | 268$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…78b9backed Yes | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd22…01cabacked No | 8c | 255$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…e96ebacked No | 5c | 252$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…0456backed No | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b61…85ccbacked No | 5c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2b…d9d5backed No | 8c | 248.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +292.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7816…4e0abacked No | 6c | 246.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02fb…8a7cbacked No | 5c | 245$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 32c | 244$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d5…1b55backed No | 9c | 243$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbc…cd9fbacked No | 5c | 239$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 12c | 236.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef6b…2b89backed No | 5c | 234$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe62…d5a9backed No | 8c | 227$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x320d…8792backed No | 7c | 226$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…37c4backed No | 7c | 211$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42f2…c816backed No | 5c | 207$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…5bf3backed No | 8c | 200.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c51…087cbacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ef…10d0backed No | 10c | 199.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea8…4348backed No | 6c | 194$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a78…7796backed No | 7c | 186$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 21c | 174.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa31c…0374backed No | 8c | 174$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddf…7fa4backed No | 10c | 165.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…2ae8backed No | 12c | 165.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4d…aa73backed No | 9c | 160$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…49d6backed No | 7c | 158.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99af…2999backed No | 9c | 156$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…ccbdbacked No | 8c | 152$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…7f32backed No | 12c | 152$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ab…f852backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed No | 8c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ff…8283backed No | 12c | 145.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 140$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 12c | 139.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa888…4ca4backed No | 8c | 134$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 8c | 130.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ac…9795backed No | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedaf…852cbacked No | 8c | 124$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 46c | 123.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1174…d2e1backed No | 23c | 119.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9e…b86ebacked No | 9c | 116$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9d…9faebacked No | 10c | 114.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 10c | 112.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked No | 18c | 102.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?this page
- Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?No won
- Will Mariana Mortágua be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?No won
- Will Paulo Raimundo be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?No won
- Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?No won
- Will Rui Rocha be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.