TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Mariana Mortágua be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,016,362
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$98,586

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,016,362 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 299 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x825f…da87backed Yes0c17,421$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201010%1 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick26cpaid-60%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c15,736$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.944121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c12,305$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.554521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0071…1e02backed Yes1c10,362$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d73…7742backed Yes1c10,362$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0748…7050backed Yes1c8,635$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa45e…a5c2backed Yes1c8,635$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92e5…23a0backed Yes1c8,635$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x387b…35b1backed Yes1c8,635$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68e8…afe3backed Yes1c8,635$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x929c…e440backed Yes1c8,635$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x152d…a726backed Yes1c8,635$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe97…585ebacked Yes1c8,635$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a15…430ebacked Yes1c8,635$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x098b…fe21backed Yes1c7,714$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4918…aceebacked Yes1c7,311$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc48b…2bb1backed Yes1c7,111$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf733…2020backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d2d…ff3fbacked Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0750…7da4backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fd1…b28abacked Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb6d…5113backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb1…f898backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bc0…befbbacked Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c0b…0b7dbacked Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb280…f1aebacked Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94b4…cf9cbacked Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9a4…24a7backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbef…0d47backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x861b…9fd6backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7e6…940dbacked Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98b9…b900backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x051f…8aebbacked Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe383…2247backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a24…949cbacked Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9074…2775backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40e8…12aabacked Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4396…6316backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93e3…86c0backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93b2…3c01backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf289…8a3dbacked Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ed1…7a73backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb16c…773cbacked Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bb0…499fbacked Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x153b…e908backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d8…2a86backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a58…b87fbacked Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d4e…f9bfbacked Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…49e8backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e20…1867backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a62…5c8abacked Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0713…fcf2backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xace7…2f0cbacked Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3846…b80cbacked Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf69…e617backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb242…b8f8backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee9…4b1abacked Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x150b…e393backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7a4…d169backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x279a…4f13backed Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8210…da7abacked Yes1c6,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaee…ed18backed Yes1c6,749$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x960c…476ebacked Yes1c6,549$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dec…6c74backed Yes1c6,349$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a78…775ebacked Yes1c6,349$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d91…271fbacked Yes1c6,346$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6143…1d6fbacked Yes1c6,346$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x553f…2156backed Yes1c6,146$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc945…fbd5backed Yes1c6,146$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3353…05e9backed Yes1c5,787$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x125c…235fbacked Yes1c5,784$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2655…6df2backed Yes1c5,584$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb788…71d6backed Yes1c5,584$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdafd…732bbacked Yes1c5,584$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63a1…0382backed Yes1c5,384$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50c8…c91fbacked Yes1c5,384$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7422…0e2bbacked Yes1c5,181$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf400…1a2bbacked Yes1c5,181$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccd0…3ac2backed Yes1c5,181$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1f4…4b77backed Yes1c5,181$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41a2…b43fbacked Yes1c5,181$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2a0…cf85backed Yes1c5,181$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35a8…5440backed Yes1c5,181$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca40…a0e1backed Yes1c5,181$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9818…5bbcbacked Yes1c5,181$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa92…cdf6backed Yes1c5,181$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf57c…f2d6backed Yes1c5,181$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63cd…10c0backed Yes1c5,181$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11c2…57a4backed Yes1c5,181$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96aa…d1a9backed Yes1c5,181$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe184…ce77backed Yes1c5,181$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe1…1f7cbacked Yes1c5,181$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbc2…72c0backed Yes1c5,181$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x162d…87b9backed Yes1c5,181$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe43c…8bb5backed Yes1c5,181$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1d…e7eabacked Yes1c5,181$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b10…5a57backed Yes1c5,181$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x656d…c432backed Yes1c5,181$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c8d…d2dfbacked Yes1c5,181$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x593d…a439backed Yes1c5,181$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.