World Politics · resolved market
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18be3e38f5a3d92d7a556afe7fa59ab3b2e8fb16a349596a516c908b8060f589
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $447,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $341,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $447,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb42d…3d11backed Yes | 2c | 76,447$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,757.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 0c | 21,703$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 19,200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.2 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…e358backed Yes | 2c | 14,534$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 12,272$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.36 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…380ebacked Yes | 2c | 9,776$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 9,711$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 6,842$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.43 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x275f…ffeabacked Yes | 1c | 5,017$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…f54dbacked Yes | 3c | 4,899$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,676$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f8…95c0backed Yes | 1c | 3,846$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac3a…0131backed Yes | 0c | 3,466$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177d…e097backed Yes | 1c | 3,377$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fde…901cbacked Yes | 5c | 3,296$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 3,087$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc221…ee0cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,871$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 2c | 2,849$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x499e…8a85backed Yes | 1c | 2,491$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bc…1a33backed Yes | 1c | 2,367$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ac…a7f4backed Yes | 2c | 2,350$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…a9cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,227$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf482…f341backed Yes | 2c | 2,152$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c6…8122backed Yes | 1c | 2,138$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b0…6419backed Yes | 2c | 1,827$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff1c…8d9fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,714$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x055c…08aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,540$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc05b…14a8backed Yes | 2c | 1,440$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…3be1backed Yes | 2c | 1,377$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…b450backed Yes | 3c | 1,334$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70d8…2f32backed Yes | 2c | 1,114$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…e224backed Yes | 1c | 927.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 870.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…4fbbbacked Yes | 2c | 867.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b3…72dfbacked Yes | 3c | 800$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfd…453abacked Yes | 1c | 743.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 3c | 614.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2a…3c73backed Yes | 3c | 600.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d7…ca3ebacked Yes | 3c | 574.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x248b…b4a5backed Yes | 2c | 549.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfade…4ad6backed Yes | 2c | 535.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eed…c741backed Yes | 2c | 525.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5262…7c6ebacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1f…3051backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…b122backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…c973backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…1185backed Yes | 3c | 462$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +166%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…b255backed Yes | 3c | 451.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3293…018abacked Yes | 3c | 445$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…b312backed Yes | 3c | 363.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe785…bc96backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?this page
- Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?Yes won
- Will Mariana Mortágua be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?No won
- Will Paulo Raimundo be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?No won
- Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?No won
- Will Rui Rocha be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.