World Politics · resolved market
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc960789d6eb636756453f1d2cc30718c8a0d0fe90eedec1c2c35fcc3bf34c10a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $391,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $331,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $391,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x257c…2cfebacked Yes | 27c | 58,167$15,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,705.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…613dbacked No | 73c | 58,167$42,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,705.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 16c | 21,175$3,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,385.74 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb592…1cabbacked Yes | 5c | 11,842$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9366…3b90backed Yes | 9c | 9,052$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 0c | 7,596$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes | 9c | 6,747$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.26 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 13c | 6,086$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.83 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed Yes | 2c | 5,930$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.15 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 5,539$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.49 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 14c | 5,000$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.94 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x511b…6ba4backed Yes | 5c | 4,825$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 10c | 4,570$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.81 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 68c | 3,482$2,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.1 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…f54dbacked Yes | 7c | 3,474$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…f879backed Yes | 8c | 3,146$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 3,121$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.46 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9504…0371backed Yes | 4c | 3,058$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,951$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 21c | 2,103$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.74 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4342…b657backed Yes | 5c | 1,984$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fc…ea76backed Yes | 4c | 1,755$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ef…563fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,714$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4482…5462backed Yes | 6c | 1,474$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 16c | 1,450$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaac3…a640backed Yes | 3c | 1,445$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d5…312abacked Yes | 7c | 1,440$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 11cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…3c8abacked Yes | 13c | 1,269$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…8af0backed Yes | 6c | 1,194$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa28f…d25ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,141$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…35c1backed Yes | 9c | 1,130$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 4c | 1,123$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f3…2c8ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,123$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eea…7ec2backed Yes | 4c | 1,111$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f10…c49bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,056$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 9c | 1,032$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…413ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,027$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 56c | 1,021$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.91 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655f…f50dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,005$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0827…f47ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,001$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…a8ffbacked Yes | 4c | 952.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1580…9394backed No | 54c | 915.55$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 8c | 891.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 14c | 879.65$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.35 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd745…d10cbacked Yes | 5c | 861.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0d…0bcebacked Yes | 6c | 833.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf23e…0e3fbacked Yes | 16c | 807.88$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…e358backed Yes | 6c | 785.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1c…8d9fbacked Yes | 5c | 781.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 5c | 700$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 680.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0e…4fb9backed Yes | 8c | 657.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…2e7cbacked Yes | 8c | 630.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…fcccbacked Yes | 7c | 620.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaa…4123backed Yes | 6c | 615.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc88…9ba3backed Yes | 7c | 609.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71b7…4bcfbacked Yes | 6c | 600$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x120b…9e1ebacked Yes | 5c | 588.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 4c | 541.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 24c | 500$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316a…405abacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6b…6b2dbacked Yes | 4c | 494$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 12c | 488.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 4c | 475.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc05b…14a8backed Yes | 7c | 474.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 6c | 463.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7121…afd2backed Yes | 19c | 450.16$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…3cf2backed Yes | 7c | 433.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeeb…6ff3backed Yes | 6c | 422.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaa…1a7cbacked Yes | 7c | 421.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94b…0379backed Yes | 4c | 412.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…d0dcbacked Yes | 6c | 401.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…84dabacked Yes | 4c | 401$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 10c | 400$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…dd29backed Yes | 5c | 398.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf890…88a1backed Yes | 4c | 397$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a57…d23dbacked Yes | 4c | 389.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…9847backed Yes | 4c | 375$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x680b…75b8backed Yes | 6c | 370.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…d7a4backed Yes | 3c | 369$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…a7b7backed Yes | 6c | 365.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…2d10backed Yes | 13c | 359.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79a5…6225backed Yes | 6c | 358.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 356.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…8a95backed Yes | 4c | 355$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c51…087cbacked Yes | 34c | 350$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked No | 55c | 350$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.43 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc28f…9b1fbacked Yes | 7c | 344.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +196.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a2b1backed Yes | 10c | 338.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…50b8backed Yes | 7c | 306.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 5c | 302.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821f…c3ffbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…9d73backed Yes | 4c | 279$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089d…f9ddbacked Yes | 4c | 279$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x203e…78a6backed Yes | 6c | 269$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…73b7backed Yes | 4c | 264$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373c…2bbcbacked Yes | 7c | 252$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 11c | 234.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?this page
- Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?No won
- Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?Yes won
- Will Mariana Mortágua be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?No won
- Will Paulo Raimundo be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?No won
- Will Rui Rocha be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.