TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Rui Rocha be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,811,658
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$140,005

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,811,658 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 350 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c21,693$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.714121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c15,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82c3…490bbacked Yes0c12,210$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a21…f657backed Yes0c8,322$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e05…0d9cbacked Yes0c7,935$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf53f…badcbacked Yes0c7,935$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x487a…8785backed Yes0c7,935$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd38…3759backed Yes0c7,935$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65e9…3a54backed Yes0c7,922$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc8b…b04dbacked Yes0c7,535$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44ab…7cb1backed Yes1c7,148$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd01d…d47bbacked Yes1c7,148$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf99a…3ababacked Yes1c7,148$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ca4…31ddbacked Yes1c7,148$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bb5…d541backed Yes1c7,148$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd517…68aabacked Yes1c7,148$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9342…b073backed Yes1c7,148$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3de…d8c4backed Yes0c7,135$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e60…07d7backed Yes0c7,135$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e30…4742backed Yes0c7,135$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd1d…097ebacked Yes1c6,948$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee9…bc1abacked Yes1c6,748$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ad2…8056backed Yes0c6,735$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23c1…eee6backed Yes0c6,735$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3ba…35b5backed Yes0c6,735$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0618…3b50backed Yes0c6,735$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaa5…4110backed Yes0c6,735$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ed0…1d06backed Yes0c6,735$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95c8…5972backed Yes0c6,348$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28f7…118fbacked Yes0c6,348$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf7d…8cf2backed Yes0c6,348$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b17…7b05backed Yes0c6,348$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf2c…abb1backed Yes0c6,348$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4e…933cbacked Yes0c5,948$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x713a…858cbacked Yes0c5,948$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x119b…df48backed Yes0c5,948$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9312…4a34backed Yes0c5,935$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa56b…b1d5backed Yes0c5,548$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8175…9a99backed Yes0c5,548$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4df…ff2cbacked Yes0c5,548$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a99…925bbacked Yes0c5,548$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a04…5a82backed Yes0c5,548$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90c0…2516backed Yes0c5,548$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf059…c626backed Yes0c5,548$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe54c…e0bebacked Yes0c5,548$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b11…f8e0backed Yes0c5,548$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dc0…b473backed Yes0c5,548$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b06…1023backed Yes0c5,548$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe733…e317backed Yes0c5,548$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a70…5764backed Yes0c5,548$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7139…13febacked Yes0c5,548$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16db…e1e5backed Yes1c5,361$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94aa…33eebacked Yes1c5,361$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x718b…01cebacked Yes1c5,361$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46a9…3533backed Yes1c5,361$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d2…e884backed Yes1c5,361$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ac2…549cbacked Yes1c5,361$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb559…04debacked Yes1c5,361$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72dc…04dabacked Yes1c5,361$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca0…fef0backed Yes1c5,361$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a70…0cf0backed Yes1c5,361$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8da…2b78backed Yes1c5,361$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc19…d3bfbacked Yes1c5,361$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4634…d7f0backed Yes1c5,361$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a39…3a4cbacked Yes1c5,361$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc469…28dfbacked Yes1c5,361$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b8c…077bbacked Yes1c5,361$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b2b…b8e3backed Yes1c5,361$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f3c…a186backed Yes1c5,361$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x364d…600fbacked Yes1c5,361$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8209…28cabacked Yes1c5,361$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b80…521abacked Yes1c5,361$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf094…156cbacked Yes1c5,361$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd184…4cf9backed Yes1c5,361$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83a5…b97cbacked Yes1c5,361$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb9c…528cbacked Yes1c5,361$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd97a…02e4backed Yes1c5,161$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0da…f914backed Yes1c5,161$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94bf…869ebacked Yes1c5,161$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x054c…8cf1backed Yes1c5,161$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d0…929fbacked Yes1c5,161$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0e4…7754backed Yes1c5,161$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c6…20dabacked Yes1c5,161$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1cb…6385backed Yes1c5,161$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x064c…9a11backed Yes0c5,148$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x737c…fb24backed Yes0c5,148$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a10…9ccbbacked Yes0c5,148$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b9c…9427backed Yes0c5,148$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…4140backed Yes0c5,148$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x997a…d887backed Yes0c5,148$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa28d…e546backed Yes0c5,148$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9018…042ebacked Yes0c5,148$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac1a…aa8bbacked Yes0c5,148$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f04…d838backed Yes0c5,148$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec8…ce8bbacked Yes0c4,961$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde0c…dfc2backed Yes0c4,761$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01f0…c1aabacked Yes0c4,761$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7666…d767backed Yes0c4,761$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf56a…3c14backed Yes0c4,761$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x422d…cc40backed Yes0c4,761$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.