TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Chargers vs. Cowboys

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Chargersof Chargers, Cowboys
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,545,403
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,108,250

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,545,403 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 853 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Cowboys53c1,991,444$1,048,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048,846.9911145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbda3…cab2backed Chargers47c700,000$331,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368,300650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+54.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Chargers47c692,340$326,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365,642.6327454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Chargers47c498,153$234,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263,957.2216955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Cowboys53c494,816$262,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262,673.6830043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Chargers47c403,385$191,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211,793.844250%21 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a55…f9bebacked Cowboys52c301,767$156,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156,918.811428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-39.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Chargers47c167,500$79,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,9486764.2%43 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Cowboys53c113,678$60,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,112.55850%29 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Chargers48c110,000$52,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,20019553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Chargers47c109,721$51,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,270.4347348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Chargers48c96,989$46,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,014.535648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Chargers47c70,000$32,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,099.9911445.6%52 W · 62 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Chargers47c50,000$23,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,499.7913654.4%74 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Cowboys52c45,133$23,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,469.1624957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Chargers47c43,702$20,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,162.2810026%26 W · 74 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Chargers47c40,000$18,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,20016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Chargers46c40,000$18,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,4506645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Chargers48c40,000$19,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,8006451.6%33 W · 31 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Chargers47c38,645$18,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,445.2947738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Chargers47c30,000$14,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,90023937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Chargers49c30,000$14,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,3003548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e19…f8abbacked Chargers48c30,000$14,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,6001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e27…8b0dbacked Cowboys53c30,000$15,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,90010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Cowboys52c28,920$14,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,901.0511544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb84a…055dbacked Chargers67c27,363$18,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,043.541741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Chargers49c26,448$12,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,488.4716836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Cowboys51c26,174$13,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,259.4475852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Cowboys45c25,000$11,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,249.9930743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Cowboys55c24,439$13,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,411.6531240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Chargers53c22,910$12,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,709.2311643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Chargers47c21,277$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,276.618650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Chargers47c20,053$9,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,627.822638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Cowboys52c20,000$10,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,40011146.8%52 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Chargers47c20,000$9,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,60012944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Chargers49c18,603$9,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,526.561968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+39%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0f8d…5f27backed Cowboys52c18,000$9,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,36010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x350e…4c2abacked Chargers49c18,000$8,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,1801100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Chargers45c15,964$7,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,780.041741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-29.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Cowboys51c15,761$8,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,03886547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Chargers75c15,358$11,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,786.2812748%61 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Cowboys59c15,000$8,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,923.314349%70 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked Chargers47c15,000$7,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,9501154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Chargers48c14,102$6,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,333.0419152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa25…05e8backed Chargers50c14,000$6,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,0602948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d1c…f13cbacked Cowboys56c12,862$7,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,194.373043.3%13 W · 17 L-5.3wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-31.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Chargers47c12,766$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,765.965149%25 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked Cowboys56c12,500$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0003560%21 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0d9…ca67backed Chargers44c12,419$5,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,998.563548.6%17 W · 18 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+10.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Chargers47c12,409$5,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,527.3521254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Cowboys52c11,538$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00013142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Chargers63c11,458$7,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,214.7823244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Chargers51c10,842$5,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,350.437255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Cowboys8c10,347$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.2720026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Chargers47c10,234$4,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,456.231,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Cowboys52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,20035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Cowboys52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2004358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Chargers47c10,000$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,299.9814342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Chargers47c10,000$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,299.957464.9%48 W · 26 L+9.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+28.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Chargers49c9,066$4,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,631.1350242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Cowboys53c9,000$4,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,77019645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Chargers47c8,619$4,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,587.856965.2%45 W · 24 L+9.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Chargers47c8,000$3,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,24051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Cowboys30c7,821$2,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,314.047736.4%28 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed Chargers46c6,782$3,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,641.634240.5%17 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87b6…4ababacked Chargers47c6,383$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,382.984452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Chargers47c6,214$2,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,293.2725744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Cowboys32c6,145$1,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,966.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Chargers48c6,000$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1204944.9%22 W · 27 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3f9…2aa8backed Chargers48c5,902$2,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,094.7629059.7%173 W · 117 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x79a5…6a63backed Chargers79c5,688$4,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,178.7922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-55.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Cowboys52c5,500$2,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8603444.1%15 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Chargers48c5,208$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,708.333138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chargers51c5,153$2,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,542.7227348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92b1…6695backed Chargers40c5,043$2,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,025.731136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Cowboys52c5,002$2,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,623.9914951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Chargers47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6508351.8%43 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Cowboys52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6002653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9146…5f30backed Cowboys53c5,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6502528%7 W · 18 L-4.9wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-47.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Cowboys53c5,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,649.9818435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Chargers48c4,852$2,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,543.8131854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Chargers48c4,583$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,383.334456.8%25 W · 19 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Chargers48c4,500$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,34026547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Chargers58c4,430$2,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,843.2164747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60f0…1a38backed Cowboys52c4,287$2,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,228.781250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Chargers47c4,255$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,255.323271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+39.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Chargers48c4,167$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.673452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Chargers46c4,090$1,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,208.3932050.9%163 W · 157 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe558…dcd2backed Cowboys53c4,001$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,120.31450%7 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Cowboys29c3,729$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.7673651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd1d…2190backed Cowboys28c3,615$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Cowboys0c3,450$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.85980%0 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Cowboys54c3,242$1,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,750.662740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Chargers48c3,238$1,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,685.6531450%157 W · 157 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Chargers46c3,221$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,754.6220757.5%119 W · 88 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb461…76cfbacked Chargers47c3,200$1,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6961241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a6…1dccbacked Cowboys54c3,200$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7281258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca6…9a97backed Chargers48c3,125$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6253652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Cowboys1c3,110$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.14311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Chargers63c3,101$1,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.6116254.9%89 W · 73 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.