NFL · resolved market
Chargers vs. Cowboys: O/U 49.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x551114618428bc3bd01962d42e898699c111b00abd976bc048905f4109a6d0c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b63…27a7backed Over | 52c | 39,300$20,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,864 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Over | 53c | 21,023$11,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,881 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Under | 47c | 20,000$9,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,400 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Over | 55c | 16,131$8,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,259 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 45c | 10,000$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 7,834$3,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,537.66 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 56c | 5,389$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,388.59 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 45c | 2,185$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.25 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Under | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.08 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Over | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 46c | 2,000$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Over | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 44c | 950$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 937.74$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.6 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 54c | 481.48$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.48 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Under | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Over | 56c | 344.64$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.64 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 52c | 327.28$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.28 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Under | 48c | 308.77$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.21 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…fcf3backed Under | 49c | 199.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…0478backed Over | 52c | 142.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 107.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…d83abacked Over | 51c | 105.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…dffcbacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x196a…f34fbacked Over | 56c | 50.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Under | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Over | 55c | 40.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Over | 56c | 40.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0b…0874backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…1dbebacked Over | 56c | 35.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…f838backed Over | 56c | 31.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…429fbacked Under | 44c | 28.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…0a66backed Over | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebd3…c5f4backed Over | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chargers vs. Cowboys: O/U 49.5this page
- Chargers vs. CowboysChargers won
- Chargers vs. Cowboys: O/U 48.5Over won
- Chargers vs. Cowboys: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Cowboys (-1.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)Chargers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.