NFL · resolved market
Chargers vs. Cowboys: O/U 50.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x334bb08b84584fb4414a591f55f7b7b7ded90e3a3813d30ef67dc35546838727
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $368,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $372,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $368,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7435…a620backed Under | 51c | 301,113$153,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153,553.89 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 49c | 250,000$122,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127,500 | 169 | 55%93 W · 76 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 37,796$18,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,275.87 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Over | 51c | 34,308$17,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,810.75 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 12,000$6,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,880 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 51c | 5,672$2,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,779.11 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Over | 51c | 3,289$1,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,618.37 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Under | 49c | 3,282$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,608.26 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 49c | 2,588$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.12 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 49c | 1,788$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.25 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Under | 49c | 1,400$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 1,086$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.11 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 1,020$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.84 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Under | 18c | 924.48$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.42 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 51c | 700$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…dc15backed Over | 53c | 569.27$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.27 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Over | 53c | 556$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.32 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…0a66backed Over | 52c | 494.69$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 50c | 335$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 299.98$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.99 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Under | 50c | 251$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -7.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -34%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 211.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…d38fbacked Under | 49c | 204.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Over | 51c | 135.29$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…3b9abacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 45.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…daabbacked Under | 49c | 45.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…94ebbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Under | 50c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…b8a0backed Over | 51c | 29.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 49c | 24.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…429fbacked Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chargers vs. Cowboys: O/U 50.5this page
- Chargers vs. CowboysChargers won
- Chargers vs. Cowboys: O/U 48.5Over won
- Chargers vs. Cowboys: O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: Cowboys (-1.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)Chargers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.