NFL · resolved market
Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd089453c9c6e22994b0abe42fb948d76e03785871e832c3ece1ac27b3ab97ca9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chargersof Cowboys, Chargers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Cowboys | 38c | 3,134$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.92 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Chargers | 62c | 3,034$1,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.92 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Cowboys | 44c | 1,305$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Chargers | 56c | 1,305$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Chargers | 63c | 873.02$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.02 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Cowboys | 37c | 623.44$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.44 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cowboys | 37c | 587.07$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.96 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Chargers | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…b051backed Chargers | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Chargers | 62c | 84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Chargers | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Chargers | 64c | 76.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x822d…97f6backed Cowboys | 42c | 76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Chargers | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cowboys | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Chargers | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Chargers | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Chargers | 64c | 43.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a59…e94cbacked Chargers | 62c | 40.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Chargers | 62c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Cowboys | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed Cowboys | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cowboys | 37c | 34.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4164…3b17backed Cowboys | 40c | 30.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cowboys | 38c | 30.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Chargers | 63c | 28.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6654…3087backed Chargers | 62c | 22.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96cd…814abacked Chargers | 62c | 21.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…07cdbacked Chargers | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)this page
- Chargers vs. CowboysChargers won
- Chargers vs. Cowboys: O/U 48.5Over won
- Chargers vs. Cowboys: O/U 49.5Over won
- Chargers vs. Cowboys: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Cowboys (-1.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)Chargers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.