NFL · resolved market
Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fb2d5e050095b714281a6c920e4924b11d6c8f10bdb6dc2e2d87d8b9679913d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chargersof Cowboys, Chargers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Chargers | 55c | 15,862$8,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,138.1 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cowboys | 45c | 8,952$4,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,028.69 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Chargers | 67c | 7,463$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,462.69 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Cowboys | 48c | 5,165$2,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,476.04 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Chargers | 67c | 3,635$2,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.67 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Cowboys | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Chargers | 67c | 1,470$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.1 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Chargers | 67c | 1,370$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.1 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cowboys | 47c | 1,010$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.7 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Chargers | 53c | 747.23$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.21 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Chargers | 58c | 744.31$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.61 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Cowboys | 46c | 706$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.76 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Chargers | 54c | 706$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.76 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Cowboys | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Cowboys | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Chargers | 61c | 392$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.48 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Chargers | 53c | 319.97$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.54 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Chargers | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30df…e573backed Chargers | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Chargers | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Cowboys | 48c | 209$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Chargers | 52c | 209$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Chargers | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…e4d2backed Chargers | 67c | 149.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Cowboys | 46c | 148.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…ce33backed Chargers | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 58cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…9707backed Cowboys | 50c | 137$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Cowboys | 47c | 122.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Chargers | 53c | 116$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Cowboys | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Chargers | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Chargers | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Chargers | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Chargers | 54c | 97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed Chargers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f2…27d4backed Cowboys | 48c | 90.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Chargers | 58c | 86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0804…049dbacked Chargers | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chargers | 50c | 62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Chargers | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Chargers | 54c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Chargers | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Chargers | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Cowboys | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Cowboys | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…d6a2backed Cowboys | 46c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cowboys | 47c | 30.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Chargers | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…6febbacked Cowboys | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Chargers | 42c | 26.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…fba2backed Cowboys | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Chargers | 52c | 23.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Cowboys | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chargers | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)this page
- Chargers vs. CowboysChargers won
- Chargers vs. Cowboys: O/U 48.5Over won
- Chargers vs. Cowboys: O/U 49.5Over won
- Chargers vs. Cowboys: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Cowboys (-1.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)Chargers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.