Movies · resolved market
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 9-11m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf531d2f0f7b1bbd958a4d94bb6222aed0a3ad1b90b1b18d30d768af1dc12a9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 5c | 7,372$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.63 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 37c | 3,411$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.13 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Yes | 13c | 3,000$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,659$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.07 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 11c | 2,627$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.22 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe664…bfb3backed Yes | 48c | 2,570$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.44 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 14c | 1,700$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,483$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.54 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…1582backed Yes | 1c | 1,470$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x202d…f8dabacked Yes | 34c | 1,324$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 62c | 1,307$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.06 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…6df2backed Yes | 38c | 1,259$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.54 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 80c | 1,204$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.94 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 1,100$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.5 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 12c | 1,085$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.76 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c5…866bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,005$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.9 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 28c | 768.84$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.23 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 22c | 696.04$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.68 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 20c | 664.13$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.85 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 10c | 583.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 22c | 557.79$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.51 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 30c | 499.58$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 20c | 481.08$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked No | 66c | 461.41$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…7ee1backed Yes | 2c | 459.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 6c | 448.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 12c | 384.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 35c | 287.63$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 66c | 220$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 27c | 197$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes | 28c | 176.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f4…5ffcbacked Yes | 18c | 172.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 168.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 71c | 164.57$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f15…9cc8backed Yes | 18c | 158$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…9b0dbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33ba…5b15backed Yes | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83eb…2ea6backed Yes | 42c | 110$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ca…ed65backed Yes | 18c | 99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 16c | 93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…5455backed Yes | 24c | 87.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf801…e94fbacked Yes | 46c | 79.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 30c | 77.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed Yes | 17c | 66.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +171%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 19c | 59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked Yes | 32c | 57.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked No | 71c | 53.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe22…66b3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed No | 79c | 47.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 75c | 39.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Novocaine' gross between 9-11m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Novocaine' gross between 7-9m on opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Novocaine' gross less than 7m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.