Movies · resolved market
Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1eb26de87ed3d7366b5bdf4e2c406da8814c3fec9d38a6a6292fc27825ae0516
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cac…596bbacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 14c | 5,310$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.64 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 3,145$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,623$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x202d…f8dabacked Yes | 9c | 2,213$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 3c | 1,996$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 7c | 1,756$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.94 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 4c | 880.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 4c | 841.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 7c | 709.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 10c | 693.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe22…66b3backed Yes | 6c | 622.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 3c | 602.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…be9cbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 5c | 423.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 350$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 3c | 336.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 5c | 256.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ba…5b15backed Yes | 8c | 226.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 12c | 225$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked Yes | 7c | 223.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes | 20c | 150.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c29…b354backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 80c | 91.43$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71b7…958dbacked Yes | 28c | 71.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Novocaine' gross between 7-9m on opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Novocaine' gross between 9-11m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Novocaine' gross less than 7m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.