Movies · resolved market
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 7-9m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14d67c9064debc7dd539c062cf511f400f61531c69c99732adb7fe2c88cb5127
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 13c | 3,894$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.54 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes | 61c | 3,490$2,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.12 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked No | 22c | 2,878$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.79 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 62c | 1,855$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.96 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 52c | 1,172$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.38 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f4…5ffcbacked Yes | 72c | 1,009$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.75 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 44c | 988.57$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.85 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 66c | 961.82$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.16 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 78c | 842$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.18 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 11c | 800$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.98 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 33c | 800$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.8 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked No | 5c | 782.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2563…f528backed No | 3c | 700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 699.99$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 67c | 650.38$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.76 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…9c14backed No | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 65c | 419.98$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.03 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 31c | 406$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.6 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes | 68c | 384.27$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.27 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2e…bbefbacked Yes | 32c | 308.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +208.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 59c | 293.82$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.91 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 25c | 238.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.35 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 69c | 237.47$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.85 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked No | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf801…e94fbacked Yes | 43c | 155.15$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.78 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed No | 45c | 139.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e39…4e41backed No | 33c | 134.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 61c | 130$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…9b81backed Yes | 76c | 113.79$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 54c | 112.9$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 62c | 108.57$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 50c | 93.87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75db…2098backed No | 19c | 89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +258.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee3…fdf4backed No | 27c | 87.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3e…c1a6backed No | 18c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked No | 37c | 53.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed No | 24c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 30c | 51.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 55c | 50.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 40c | 50.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…9f9bbacked Yes | 73c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 33c | 42.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58fb…33dabacked No | 26c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed No | 39c | 40.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33ba…5b15backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 61c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 50c | 39.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed Yes | 58c | 31.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 39c | 29.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93eb…63a1backed Yes | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…45b0backed Yes | 74c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644a…55b3backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 59c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Novocaine' gross between 7-9m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Novocaine' gross between 9-11m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Novocaine' gross less than 7m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.