Movies · resolved market
Will 'Novocaine' gross less than 7m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4785684f73dd3d6971932f02374a5c0e9ba3f59d8f7f4b5ab5e2f2d283ad3fa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes | 12c | 7,736$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.89 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 16c | 7,526$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.22 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.56 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 14c | 999$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.19 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 16c | 558.78$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.18 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 16c | 310.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 13c | 235.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 14c | 209.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…1419backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 13c | 157$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 140.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…554fbacked No | 79c | 68.72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 29c | 37.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Novocaine' gross less than 7m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Novocaine' gross between 7-9m on opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Novocaine' gross between 9-11m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.