World Politics · resolved market
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dad5a2a7a47974cc1f7c8c458e2103706bcbe7a1f4b52a314e0a02cde78cdb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 65c | 3,061$1,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.07 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…7dbebacked Yes | 21c | 2,829$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,825$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.55 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba2…eaa7backed Yes | 23c | 2,516$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 70c | 2,003$1,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.66 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 72c | 1,424$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.28 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…b9e4backed Yes | 21c | 1,419$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 3c | 1,276$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 28c | 1,150$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.77 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 39c | 1,000$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 26cpaid | +358.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked Yes | 37c | 754.4$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.04 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 34c | 735.29$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0750…86dcbacked No | 63c | 634.92$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 64c | 549.99$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.5 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4af…24e5backed Yes | 18c | 547.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed No | 79c | 535.55$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.52 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 36c | 529.9$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.47 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd48…db01backed Yes | 45c | 522.67$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 24c | 520$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 37c | 500$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.1 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…d0ddbacked Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 3c | 497.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 441$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked Yes | 24c | 410$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 70c | 343.48$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 14c | 300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 65c | 299.92$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 76c | 298.99$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed No | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -28%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 64c | 248.85$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.57 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 67c | 227.37$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c0…1404backed Yes | 9c | 221.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 220$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f61…c8aabacked No | 65c | 176.44$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Yes | 32c | 155$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…c3ddbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14c…00d7backed Yes | 35c | 146.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 32c | 139.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a3…f796backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8664…dd88backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…d869backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes | 39c | 132.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 8c | 130.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e55…2b2abacked No | 66c | 120.29$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 23c | 115.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 23c | 104.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +792.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a85…37c8backed Yes | 29c | 98.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed Yes | 37c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 27c | 79.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed No | 77c | 78.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed No | 59c | 71.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba8…61b7backed Yes | 41c | 65.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfef5…1a76backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4076…04acbacked No | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd29…a638backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…511ebacked No | 58c | 38.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…744dbacked No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…745cbacked No | 59c | 33.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 37c | 27.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…be73backed No | 62c | 24.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…bfbbbacked No | 66c | 22.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 62c | 22.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x645b…893cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…6250backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.