NFL · resolved market
Will the Titans make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x755b314303b8c20a971c78bd15cf48d7e642e13c5a859f2c6d10a002b2579980
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 67c | 2,383$1,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 72c | 2,133$1,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.47 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 17c | 1,960$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.45 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked No | 39c | 1,892$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.23 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 66c | 1,555$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.47 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…27bbbacked Yes | 74c | 1,357$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.9 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Yes | 63c | 725$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.5 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed No | 15c | 592.86$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed Yes | 24c | 550$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.4 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 47c | 436.7$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.35 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 353.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 42c | 327.01$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.34 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 25c | 280.37$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.12 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 72c | 212.34$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 23c | 194.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 57c | 158.56$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed Yes | 65c | 140.56$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 37c | 137.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 62c | 136$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 19c | 131.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 37c | 130$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 56c | 112.17$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 77c | 102.79$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked No | 50c | 101$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…dd01backed No | 30c | 99.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 33c | 96.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 19c | 91.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 84.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x411b…974bbacked No | 37c | 79.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 27c | 62.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e9…80e9backed Yes | 49c | 52.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 40c | 46.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…de48backed Yes | 72c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed No | 34c | 37.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…2d2cbacked Yes | 59c | 35.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Yes | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x90b1…4702backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…f663backed Yes | 71c | 15.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 74c | 14.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca53…8bd2backed Yes | 79c | 13.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Titans make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?this page
- Will the Browns make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Giants make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Jaguars make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Jets make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Panthers make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Patriots make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Raiders make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.