NFL · resolved market
Will the Giants make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa04295254b94cc8f207cdb635c43e5ff65231d0340185240b8b65e4371de68b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebff…d88cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,821$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +155%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…8194backed Yes | 1c | 2,800$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 24c | 1,700$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.5 | 221 | 42.1%93 W · 128 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 1,069$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.61 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,056$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 243 | 0.8%2 W · 241 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 2c | 711.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 656.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…f2ddbacked No | 80c | 578.99$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.54 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 13c | 456.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 16c | 443.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 5c | 366$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8583…a5dbbacked Yes | 20c | 297.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdd…c1d9backed Yes | 6c | 222$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 73c | 204.36$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…799dbacked Yes | 6c | 163$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 12c | 112.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 19c | 102.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…85e9backed Yes | 15c | 98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 20c | 90.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 50.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 37c | 48.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Giants make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?this page
- Will the Browns make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Jaguars make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Jets make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Panthers make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Patriots make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Raiders make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Titans make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.