NFL · resolved market
Will the Patriots make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd4bad1eafe59039ae16216a5e38e45d56c66f5911fedfb1363908188362edf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $151,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe425…6155backed Yes | 1c | 29,900$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0211…8073backed Yes | 1c | 24,100$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed Yes | 52c | 7,987$4,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,163.79 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed No | 54c | 6,791$3,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,092.34 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 46c | 2,581$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.8 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 52c | 2,577$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.89 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 46c | 2,219$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.86 | 221 | 42.1%93 W · 128 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 48c | 1,700$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 3c | 1,259$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 101 | 4%4 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 2c | 823.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 731.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…5fe9backed Yes | 46c | 651.29$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.64 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 48c | 608.68$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.33 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 60c | 472.32$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.08 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 11c | 379.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed No | 80c | 369.58$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No | 58c | 347.58$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.98 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 46c | 346.97$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.61 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 47c | 329.65$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.23 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 40c | 286.95$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.78 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 276.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…8194backed No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…4c8cbacked Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 38c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 47c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 50c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 58cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Patriots make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?this page
- Will the Browns make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Giants make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Jaguars make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Jets make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Panthers make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Raiders make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Titans make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.