Us Politics · resolved market
Will DOGE confirm Gold missing from Fort Knox?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed10f10ca406e13429ec13b75927918a3272464f203e1a4aeaba1c466f0e7e8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $394,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $403,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $394,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9d9…9370backed Yes | 16c | 72,856$11,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,657.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…67c0backed Yes | 15c | 47,041$7,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,056.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 10c | 17,996$1,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860.6 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8308…ed84backed Yes | 17c | 7,787$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…de55backed Yes | 14c | 7,164$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 13c | 5,800$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.62 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002c…b7fbbacked Yes | 12c | 4,737$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 12c | 3,330$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.56 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 2,122$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 75c | 1,766$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.62 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,431$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326a…c3dabacked Yes | 18c | 1,008$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 997.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 836.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 10c | 829.39$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 801.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…bdcdbacked Yes | 3c | 576.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 3c | 528.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…aa4cbacked Yes | 4c | 480.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes | 4c | 432.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 6c | 399.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aed…b8bfbacked Yes | 4c | 384.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f49…af16backed Yes | 3c | 384.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 377.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…9f94backed Yes | 14c | 353.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…547abacked Yes | 4c | 336.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 4c | 336.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c7…6045backed Yes | 3c | 302.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f79…fa7fbacked Yes | 6c | 292.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5db…d774backed Yes | 4c | 288.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked Yes | 4c | 288.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf72d…a2e0backed Yes | 7c | 267.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 260.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 78c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 10c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc591…afcbbacked Yes | 10c | 196.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Yes | 11c | 183.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…9867backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 9c | 149.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…22b0backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.