Commodities · resolved market
Will egg prices drop this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa52ed4967375858c591aba2c2c42b3ec365b28bf5ca6c602b23d481412b68707
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 19c | 3,408$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1e…8bf1backed Yes | 76c | 1,258$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2487…6530backed No | 24c | 1,258$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb65…8accbacked No | 12c | 900$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…bfacbacked No | 2c | 884.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…7a8bbacked Yes | 68c | 829$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked No | 23c | 668.07$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a3…5532backed Yes | 78c | 627.89$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 581.72$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked No | 24c | 540.14$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.57 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 11c | 534.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…eeaebacked No | 23c | 481.05$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 27c | 421.56$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 26c | 414.71$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x318a…360bbacked No | 27c | 393.35$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb05…12f8backed No | 11c | 352.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 74c | 203.43$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 69c | 200$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9308…e2f5backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…b363backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed No | 24c | 199.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 19c | 147.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 25c | 138.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf13…690abacked Yes | 75c | 133.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…3a00backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7846…f646backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed Yes | 78c | 89.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…c286backed No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 72c | 79.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…a02abacked No | 27c | 77.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279d…1f27backed No | 29c | 76.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed Yes | 74c | 73.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 23c | 71.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 23c | 69.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked Yes | 78c | 63.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked No | 22c | 57.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 30c | 54.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4172…b4d1backed Yes | 72c | 54.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…853bbacked Yes | 76c | 44.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…40d8backed Yes | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…0667backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…0734backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 49cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe4…5e41backed Yes | 57c | 24.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x628b…b84fbacked Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.