Middle East · resolved market
Fact Check: Did the U.S. hit Iranian spy ship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c77e475e157978c4329d3ead939b1dc9d240a18f1b7bc9cf8cf596cfd6eb5fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e97…190bbacked Yes | 0c | 27,664$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 9c | 9,917$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.18 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 6,613$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,846$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 4c | 2,150$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…c1cebacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 7c | 1,015$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 2c | 942.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 1c | 890.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ed…ce43backed Yes | 10c | 772$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked Yes | 4c | 703$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49e5…f527backed Yes | 4c | 575$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked Yes | 2c | 525.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 12c | 312$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…f573backed Yes | 13c | 309.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd48…db01backed Yes | 6c | 242.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0ef5backed Yes | 11c | 183.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8182…7cf5backed Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed Yes | 29c | 64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…4766backed Yes | 27c | 62.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4c…9f8abacked Yes | 23c | 43.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.