NFL · resolved market
Will Shedeur Sanders be a top 5 draft pick?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x465481e588e4fb08daf90bddcdbb92e89f778a5f484a8c03c599940f3d61c9ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5fa…5c92backed Yes | 3c | 1,071$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked No | 58c | 801.14$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.68 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 2c | 584$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 12c | 472.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 4c | 406.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 31c | 251.29$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 161 | 39.1%63 W · 98 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 50c | 199$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 40c | 181.63$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6678…d4b6backed Yes | 31c | 127.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 81.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 64c | 76.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Yes | 37c | 68.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…27bbbacked Yes | 61c | 52.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c98…a58bbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd1…b0fbbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 64c | 37.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…168abacked Yes | 58c | 34.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Yes | 44c | 27.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 77c | 26.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a9…0b72backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd5…13a0backed Yes | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e3…716ebacked No | 79c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…0920backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 65c | 19.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.