Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 14-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x122253bae5707d3e627c7e21abe3df592db6e6f2cd96a240852b2d94587d2607
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 21,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a27…f038backed Yes | 5c | 11,787$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed Yes | 0c | 5,222$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0317…6289backed Yes | 5c | 4,855$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,999$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.11 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 11c | 1,054$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.16 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 11c | 892.58$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.69 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13df…daa3backed Yes | 2c | 700$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…4788backed Yes | 5c | 636$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 2c | 549.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 3c | 505.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed No | 69c | 463.25$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.61 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 3c | 418.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 9c | 349.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfc…9b82backed Yes | 4c | 304$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Yes | 14c | 213.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 16c | 209.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 9c | 206.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 185$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 15c | 136.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b0…8512backed Yes | 15c | 134.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 11c | 126$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba0…da61backed Yes | 17c | 125$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094c…e608backed Yes | 16c | 121.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…3ebcbacked Yes | 17c | 120.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 77c | 102.3$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 16c | 99.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d71…6945backed Yes | 19c | 96.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f61…3e98backed Yes | 24c | 92.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…0a71backed Yes | 21c | 73.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 21c | 70.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…d077backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 14-21?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times March 14-21?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times March 14-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.