Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times March 14-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9937cfa78aaff8c8da1541700baa4a91a2e041553fb2fcc030fa1ed360695eaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x765a…efb4backed No | 1c | 2,550$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 64c | 2,519$1,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.84 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8322…c573backed No | 67c | 1,593$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 16c | 1,450$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.88 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 1c | 1,150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bd…6892backed Yes | 47c | 701.13$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.71 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 30c | 671.86$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.3 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed No | 8c | 632.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 43c | 552.44$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.8 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 4c | 506.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed Yes | 59c | 475.58$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.55 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 79c | 390.82$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b9…98ffbacked Yes | 53c | 376$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43bf…9d26backed Yes | 72c | 363.12$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 43c | 340.38$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.96 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc24…e86fbacked Yes | 56c | 306.69$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.92 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3977…2c6fbacked Yes | 66c | 266.39$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.46 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed No | 28c | 263.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.94 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 24c | 216.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 30c | 211$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.7 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Yes | 59c | 200.02$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9730…4504backed No | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…97bcbacked Yes | 67c | 185.06$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…f4e2backed Yes | 68c | 176.46$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17c7…7423backed No | 65c | 161.61$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…f573backed Yes | 32c | 119.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…a436backed Yes | 75c | 105.9$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2333…c1f2backed Yes | 78c | 102.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab3…9f4dbacked No | 22c | 102.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d3…e15fbacked Yes | 80c | 100.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed No | 32c | 87.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 62c | 86.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d25…0027backed Yes | 69c | 79.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 51c | 78.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 33c | 72.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…30ecbacked Yes | 42c | 68.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked No | 54c | 67.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 77c | 56.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 41c | 54.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…3cc3backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…5c87backed Yes | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…3ebcbacked Yes | 42c | 47.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…9ec9backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…762dbacked No | 64c | 38.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x432f…9fe5backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…39b0backed Yes | 57c | 34.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 38c | 32.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked No | 39c | 31.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc272…ca31backed No | 56c | 30.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52c9…0255backed Yes | 43c | 30.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd99…df91backed Yes | 66c | 30.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fda…af88backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0d…ffb0backed Yes | 78c | 29.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde71…070ebacked No | 65c | 27.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7da…943fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…b42fbacked No | 70c | 15.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times March 14-21?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times March 14-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.