Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 14-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58915fd3b12f157ebf73fa5113673fcb27b99adbf3ee09d76aff733374147560
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 16,020$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a27…f038backed Yes | 6c | 13,510$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x799f…7a8cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 4,461$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.92 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…a005backed Yes | 4c | 2,082$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,486$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 3c | 1,065$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 3c | 744.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 11c | 658.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33e…90d0backed Yes | 10c | 523.35$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9730…4504backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741b…b1d3backed Yes | 12c | 420$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f61…3e98backed Yes | 5c | 370.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea2…009cbacked Yes | 6c | 363$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…c5ebbacked Yes | 6c | 347.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1761…bd1cbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13b9…569fbacked Yes | 6c | 198$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 11c | 135.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94e…ac9ebacked Yes | 15c | 99.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 14-21?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times March 14-21?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times March 14-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.