Movies · resolved market
Will 'Alto Knights' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe811015f2c0aaee2db9732ddbc65f6f7c2b31054e7743a1e7b4e7b4e4918c517
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes | 74c | 4,377$3,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.04 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 37c | 1,652$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.08 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed No | 64c | 1,135$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.72 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 35c | 1,078$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.87 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,042$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.53 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.25 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed No | 65c | 850.33$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.35 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 14c | 804.77$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.42 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 34c | 684$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.74 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 665$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.11 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 12c | 550$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 75c | 520$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 22c | 353.22$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 227.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 68c | 202.5$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 25c | 197.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.32 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 23c | 131.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.18 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 66c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 70c | 87.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed No | 56c | 77.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 36c | 74.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 50.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 69c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 54c | 26.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 23.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Alto Knights' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 3m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Alto Knights' gross more than 7m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.