Movies · resolved market
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf942450a1a4862536829b316e3650ed58b37753fe5f61fb6764373574d26c4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 1c | 4,902$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,287$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,650$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1,415 | 8%113 W · 1,302 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,470$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa208…9545backed Yes | 1c | 1,161$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 2c | 1,126$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…829fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,035$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…05e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,034$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed9…69d6backed Yes | 1c | 1,006$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 902.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 2c | 758.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…e873backed Yes | 2c | 649.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf194…ca22backed Yes | 2c | 605.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 4c | 549.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 6c | 543.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4674…6cfbbacked Yes | 2c | 537.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e80…bf68backed Yes | 2c | 532.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa40…3f46backed Yes | 3c | 399.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1922…35dabacked Yes | 3c | 398.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…8819backed Yes | 3c | 341.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 15c | 334.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…049ebacked Yes | 3c | 333.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01aa…e564backed Yes | 4c | 301.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e2…d133backed Yes | 4c | 256$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Alto Knights' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 3m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Alto Knights' gross more than 7m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.