Movies · resolved market
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 3m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3375ec6ccf9967cbd935638cdbff44b399d2d6ff019146bd5a5b01516c30c557
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 18c | 3,059$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.49 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 26c | 2,147$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.8 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed No | 58c | 1,831$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.89 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed No | 49c | 1,290$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.55 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed No | 80c | 1,085$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.37 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 62c | 1,049$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.11 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 65c | 839$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.63 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 18c | 758.51$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.97 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 27c | 724.03$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.07 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed No | 65c | 694$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.75 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 691.6$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.26 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 14c | 506.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f4…5ffcbacked Yes | 16c | 501.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 63c | 421$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.65 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 23c | 304$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 27c | 219.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.05 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 50c | 175$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.89 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 25c | 166.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.07 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 61c | 158$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 31c | 138.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 30c | 126.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 43c | 109.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.62 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304a…eacfbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa046…00c7backed No | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 41c | 99.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed Yes | 62c | 52.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed No | 41c | 52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed No | 41c | 51.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…cbf7backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf801…e94fbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 43c | 37.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 36.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a0…c169backed Yes | 64c | 32.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 3m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Alto Knights' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Alto Knights' gross more than 7m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.