Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 7-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde4a00e17e4e08b5c4ef1e5c03c6883b4d40c06959439778ba19635fb16c65be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $522,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $473,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $522,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 339 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 74c | 22,275$16,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,835.73 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 42c | 17,942$7,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,425.85 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 21c | 17,381$3,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,784.48 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 27c | 16,732$4,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,207.25 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 26c | 16,248$4,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,989.97 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 18c | 14,692$2,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,096.88 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 78c | 12,257$9,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,723.91 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 22c | 10,327$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,027.19 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 60c | 10,160$6,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,071.68 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 0c | 7,011$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 37c | 6,540$2,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,131.3 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 64c | 5,082$3,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,239.35 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 14c | 4,661$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,009.22 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 32c | 4,577$1,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,122.32 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed Yes | 73c | 4,558$3,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.66 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 21c | 4,285$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,397.04 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5677backed Yes | 10c | 4,284$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,852.88 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 51c | 4,260$2,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,077.64 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef2…8a53backed Yes | 19c | 4,150$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,369.28 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 22c | 3,874$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,002.56 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 29c | 3,226$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,295.05 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 25c | 3,131$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,358.42 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 22c | 3,033$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,351.03 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…3290backed No | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 19c | 2,910$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.73 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3f…1e6cbacked Yes | 25c | 2,706$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,026.83 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…cf47backed Yes | 9c | 2,500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,270 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 38c | 2,374$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.99 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 19c | 2,274$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,838.31 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 35c | 2,200$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51a6…5c40backed No | 4c | 2,182$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 29c | 2,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,993$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.88 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 27c | 1,718$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.77 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,701$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.32 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…94bcbacked Yes | 46c | 1,698$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 18c | 1,609$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.72 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 13c | 1,595$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.81 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…3f6ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,583$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.34 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 19c | 1,581$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.01 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 33c | 1,575$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.6 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769e…cd65backed Yes | 11c | 1,565$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.41 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 14cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d71…6945backed Yes | 42c | 1,530$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.99 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x079b…ec97backed Yes | 16c | 1,512$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,496$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.29 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,489$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.93 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b9…98ffbacked Yes | 21c | 1,478$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.66 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…e965backed Yes | 15c | 1,469$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.45 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…6b7abacked Yes | 75c | 1,460$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 23c | 1,450$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.48 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…ae5cbacked Yes | 42c | 1,441$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.02 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 33c | 1,350$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.03 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 27c | 1,331$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.18 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 19c | 1,275$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.41 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…30fabacked Yes | 28c | 1,243$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.7 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…3ec5backed Yes | 17c | 1,209$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.38 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed Yes | 34c | 1,202$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.25 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…33ccbacked Yes | 36c | 1,200$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…228dbacked Yes | 39c | 1,196$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.65 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 57c | 1,147$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.93 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -62%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5350…df2abacked Yes | 27c | 1,139$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.12 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed Yes | 71c | 1,126$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.38 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809f…4598backed Yes | 20c | 1,113$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd4…3474backed Yes | 18c | 1,110$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 41c | 1,086$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.46 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,070$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.5 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 16c | 1,058$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.77 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 11c | 1,050$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.5 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 13c | 1,021$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.9 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes | 79c | 970.96$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.35 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 41c | 965.77$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.42 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…743bbacked Yes | 10c | 952.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.79 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 21c | 950.45$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.68 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 75c | 939.67$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.86 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc536…3cefbacked Yes | 57c | 914.62$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.19 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 18c | 910.84$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.46 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 57c | 910.46$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.23 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 8c | 900$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…488bbacked No | 22c | 893.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 37c | 892.25$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.69 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0359…3bdebacked Yes | 8c | 871.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06bd…e6f5backed Yes | 18c | 842.36$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.41 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes | 66c | 797.82$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.49 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb54…6e4bbacked Yes | 43c | 792.14$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed Yes | 11c | 789.68$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.82 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 32c | 783$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.35 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed No | 40c | 774.32$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.73 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed Yes | 9c | 758.86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.56 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…a548backed Yes | 37c | 752.04$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.97 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…3742backed Yes | 19c | 727.16$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.16 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 29c | 700$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 12c | 685$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.5 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…74c6backed Yes | 11c | 655.25$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.03 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…ffd0backed Yes | 69c | 650$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f71…722dbacked Yes | 38c | 638.53$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 18c | 637.17$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.67 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 10c | 637$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.84 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…b96cbacked Yes | 30c | 627.93$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.83 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 29c | 607.29$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.98 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 7-14?this page
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-724 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 725-749 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-774 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 775-799 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.