Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b9b80714b83d25158028365606f742943fc4c8b7f6cf0f1299d2b237412ac36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $534,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $272,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $534,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 42,762$2,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,347.59 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 11c | 13,595$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.87 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 12,120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked Yes | 3c | 10,472$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.04 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3f…db7fbacked Yes | 12c | 9,005$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 10c | 8,101$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.13 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 10c | 7,641$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.33 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 12c | 6,013$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.22 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde5d…f58bbacked Yes | 13c | 5,229$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed Yes | 7c | 5,123$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.63 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…8ff5backed Yes | 10c | 4,940$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.69 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 16c | 4,825$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.86 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 11c | 4,737$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.26 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed Yes | 2c | 4,703$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 11c | 4,542$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.4 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 8c | 4,328$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.81 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 4,090$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 12c | 3,979$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.15 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 8c | 3,881$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.22 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 11c | 3,823$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.22 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 15c | 3,423$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.74 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e0…b2b4backed Yes | 10c | 3,368$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,310$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.5 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.89 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 5c | 3,000$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 9c | 2,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 3c | 2,352$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 2c | 2,300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…e579backed Yes | 9c | 2,290$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.3 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 11c | 2,204$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.13 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 11c | 2,171$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.82 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 11c | 2,120$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.36 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3f…1e6cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,908$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.49 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 9c | 1,882$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.86 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…3b8dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,780$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21bd…ae93backed Yes | 1c | 1,766$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 11c | 1,750$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.19 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,728$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.67 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 15c | 1,685$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.01 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 12c | 1,678$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 9c | 1,547$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.68 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…228dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,536$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.48 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…3f6ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,496$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.52 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 7c | 1,490$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.8 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e5…2829backed Yes | 11c | 1,484$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +131.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 12c | 1,454$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 9c | 1,451$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.76 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 10c | 1,376$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.6 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,354$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 11c | 1,330$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.55 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…743bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,330$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…30fabacked Yes | 11c | 1,301$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.14 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,292$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.47 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 9c | 1,267$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.59 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 8c | 1,220$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.82 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 10c | 1,198$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.81 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…3ec5backed Yes | 13c | 1,155$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 8c | 1,097$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.63 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,070$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.41 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed Yes | 11c | 1,070$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.7 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…1aefbacked Yes | 12c | 1,067$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc333…466fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,034$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.41 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106d…2167backed Yes | 8c | 1,031$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…9f5dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed Yes | 10c | 999.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 10c | 999.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b36…4021backed Yes | 14c | 966.46$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.37 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…65c9backed Yes | 24c | 901.15$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f79…7148backed Yes | 8c | 862.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 11c | 817.69$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fd…e28abacked Yes | 12c | 773$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f71…722dbacked Yes | 9c | 770.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…74c6backed Yes | 13c | 728.15$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.66 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aac…9d8abacked Yes | 8c | 720.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed Yes | 28c | 704.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 9c | 697.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 10c | 655$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0e…6a86backed Yes | 11c | 650$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 12c | 642.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 11c | 615.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes | 9c | 600$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424a…55cfbacked Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 9c | 599.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 9c | 526.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…1da6backed Yes | 14c | 511.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…0fcfbacked Yes | 20c | 504.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…e965backed Yes | 10c | 501$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ba…ac5bbacked Yes | 10c | 484.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 5c | 477.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f2…1362backed Yes | 17c | 449.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Yes | 5c | 443.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f29…3d27backed Yes | 13c | 437.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…53d8backed Yes | 10c | 420$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x428b…c821backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 10c | 410$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14?this page
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 7-14?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-724 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 725-749 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-774 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 775-799 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.