TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet 725-749 times March 7-14?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$244,566
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,589

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,566 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8111…489dbacked Yes1c15,840$80 inLost-$80.021627.4%12 W · 150 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-3.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes0c10,294$10 inLost-$10.292401.7%4 W · 236 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+675.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes0c10,141$33 inLost-$32.56468.7%4 W · 42 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes2c8,495$136 inLost-$135.642303.9%9 W · 221 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-78.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes1c5,000$50 inLost-$502859.1%26 W · 259 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes3c3,000$89 inLost-$89.062468.5%21 W · 225 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes1c3,000$16 inLost-$16.53876.5%25 W · 362 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x099e…8e52backed Yes1c2,888$14 inLost-$14.44502%1 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-77.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x353f…3b8dbacked Yes1c2,097$24 inLost-$24.14402.5%1 W · 39 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6404…f250backed Yes2c2,000$40 inLost-$401010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-81.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes1c1,772$26 inLost-$26.241557.7%12 W · 143 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes1c1,757$16 inLost-$15.5868615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x992d…743bbacked Yes1c1,570$20 inLost-$20618.2%5 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick10cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6d8…3024backed Yes1c1,561$12 inLost-$12.49827.3%6 W · 76 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec6a…afccbacked Yes2c1,400$22 inLost-$22.418012.8%23 W · 157 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-17.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes2c1,165$24 inLost-$24.4682711%91 W · 736 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost-$105320.8%11 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+47.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87e1…5998backed Yes2c1,000$15 inLost-$1515520.6%32 W · 123 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06d8…1aefbacked Yes3c798.85$20 inLost-$201915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes2c700$11 inLost-$10.934714.7%51 W · 296 L+13.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes2c679.84$15 inLost-$153511.4%4 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a4f…6b7abacked Yes2c500$11 inLost-$10.53923.1%9 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-32.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes3c431.39$15 inLost-$1510220.6%21 W · 81 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-41.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes3c376$11 inLost-$10.734010%4 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-67.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ac…087abacked Yes5c217.14$11 inLost-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+88.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.