Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0454da959e8252430afc83b02baab11b341fbfc0303d70299a6368b5797f9313
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $815,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $514,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $815,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 292 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 44,794$2,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,652.44 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 15c | 40,093$6,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,106.13 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…1c86backed Yes | 5c | 26,633$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,371.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df3…887abacked Yes | 53c | 23,616$12,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,622.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 19c | 21,013$4,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,024.58 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed Yes | 7c | 20,741$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.78 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…611cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,390$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40df…97b1backed Yes | 0c | 17,310$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 11c | 14,056$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.6 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde5d…f58bbacked Yes | 15c | 13,636$2,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,109.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…b185backed Yes | 0c | 10,937$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 14c | 9,545$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.95 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 13c | 9,196$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.85 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 22c | 8,578$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,904.4 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 16c | 7,787$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.04 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 7c | 6,711$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 13c | 6,565$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.36 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 16c | 6,236$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.65 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 9c | 6,052$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.41 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 9c | 5,850$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.15 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 15c | 5,523$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.69 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 17c | 5,454$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.91 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 15c | 4,990$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.98 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…b0fabacked Yes | 29c | 4,230$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…e579backed Yes | 15c | 3,705$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.94 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 14c | 3,664$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.95 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 21c | 3,423$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.29 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 16c | 3,162$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.4 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…80c9backed Yes | 17c | 3,117$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef2…8a53backed Yes | 27c | 2,979$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.46 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 11c | 2,908$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.53 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 5c | 2,894$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 19c | 2,876$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.22 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f71…722dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,785$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 14c | 2,619$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.05 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x809f…4598backed Yes | 10c | 2,535$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 12c | 2,281$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.46 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 22c | 2,273$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,772.72 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +114.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 19c | 2,160$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 15c | 2,100$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,092$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 8c | 2,073$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.09 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe126…3e96backed Yes | 2c | 2,034$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 6c | 1,999$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,879.06 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 9cpaid | +321.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 16c | 1,861$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.82 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 17c | 1,846$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.97 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 15c | 1,804$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.17 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 13c | 1,726$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.12 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 18c | 1,699$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.65 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 6c | 1,666$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.04 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 6c | 1,666$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.04 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b9…98ffbacked Yes | 19c | 1,560$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,517$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.57 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63ce…d59abacked No | 77c | 1,500$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 17c | 1,427$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.91 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 8c | 1,424$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.98 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 17c | 1,353$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.23 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbc…6085backed Yes | 20c | 1,295$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.97 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 21c | 1,280$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.79 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 25c | 1,256$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.02 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…a18fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,203$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.92 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd4…3474backed Yes | 17c | 1,180$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 14c | 1,121$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.02 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 18c | 1,076$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.99 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 19c | 1,071$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.13 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fba…22f2backed Yes | 7c | 1,050$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,049$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x106d…2167backed Yes | 7c | 1,049$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 20c | 1,006$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.02 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked No | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 10c | 999.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 21c | 973.07$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.25 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 16c | 951.16$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.75 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…276dbacked Yes | 6c | 947.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed Yes | 25c | 895.47$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.27 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 12c | 868.84$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.68 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…4d6ebacked Yes | 18c | 854.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…52a6backed Yes | 23c | 847.83$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…f929backed Yes | 15c | 846.18$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…d2afbacked Yes | 17c | 817.94$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.35 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…8d2fbacked Yes | 17c | 767.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.95 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 18c | 764.11$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.94 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3977…2c6fbacked Yes | 10c | 761.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 21c | 760$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +171.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 11c | 756.58$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 79c | 749.78$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed Yes | 3c | 741.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4503…7aaabacked Yes | 28c | 719.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11be…803cbacked Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be2…4664backed Yes | 4c | 695.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 14c | 689.11$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…5acabacked Yes | 15c | 680.11$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.02 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 8c | 678.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a3…d285backed Yes | 15c | 678.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec16…07f9backed Yes | 18c | 650.09$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ae…3327backed No | 75c | 636.02$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x028c…162fbacked Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5043…1399backed Yes | 17c | 625$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?this page
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 7-14?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-724 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 725-749 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-774 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 775-799 times March 7-14?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.