AI · resolved market
DeepSeek V4 released before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a95d3b142c57b53f7b705d0ec23533e4d70930ef73c8d29e4e6940c836116c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $154,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $154,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdf1…8428backed Yes | 16c | 64,987$10,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,397.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 9c | 4,014$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.84 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed No | 75c | 2,114$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.3 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 15c | 1,768$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.28 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…0cf7backed Yes | 20c | 1,347$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | +67%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 24c | 1,174$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.39 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed Yes | 16c | 643.3$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 513.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 11c | 499.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +168.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 9c | 464.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 16c | 464.04$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 16c | 372.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 63c | 367.1$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.44 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7121…afd2backed Yes | 26c | 347.16$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 8c | 317$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 294.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 76c | 252$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 68c | 241.72$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 236.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 200.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe461…9a34backed Yes | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3166…a9febacked Yes | 17c | 149.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x693a…0ed9backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…7007backed No | 69c | 130$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 120.15$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…e597backed Yes | 34c | 118.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f42…233bbacked Yes | 26c | 113.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 23c | 88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf02…17fabacked Yes | 37c | 85.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 14c | 83.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 28c | 79.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0773…3580backed Yes | 23c | 76.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…0236backed Yes | 31c | 70.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfe…5e2fbacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…51d7backed Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50af…0693backed No | 66c | 59.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Yes | 34c | 57.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 51cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…2ab5backed Yes | 27c | 55.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5b…89f4backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd085…addbbacked No | 76c | 50.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…7676backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 76c | 49.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…ff6abacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +33%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…7caabacked No | 65c | 22.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b33…7fd4backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…dd4cbacked No | 72c | 18.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.