Fifa International · resolved market
Will Italy beat Germany
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86e20e004abe156829bad675c5cea125478780687801d252e6e831a6a9488f8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x512b…a346backed Yes | 62c | 1,626$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 52c | 1,371$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…ac82backed No | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x771b…932cbacked Yes | 35c | 999.98$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 64c | 999.97$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.99 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 47c | 957.56$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.77 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 37c | 880.04$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 32c | 865.59$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.57 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5493…3b86backed Yes | 35c | 809.1$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a47…9601backed No | 65c | 809.1$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…de2dbacked No | 66c | 624.72$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 37c | 606.25$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.87 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 65c | 449.95$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.48 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cd…9973backed Yes | 35c | 428.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…b0d0backed No | 65c | 367.34$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 63c | 341.34$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.3 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 62c | 292$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…323cbacked No | 65c | 260$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d3…2d11backed Yes | 35c | 245$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…1798backed Yes | 35c | 240$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 37c | 225.84$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f6…3064backed Yes | 35c | 215$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 39c | 210.66$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 229 | 59.4%136 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe8…5bbdbacked Yes | 35c | 190$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb538…f1d1backed Yes | 35c | 190$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb22e…e35fbacked No | 65c | 185$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x921b…9131backed Yes | 35c | 160$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…5723backed No | 65c | 145$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 34c | 140.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bae…d5e8backed No | 65c | 135$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef6…dc43backed No | 65c | 130$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbc…1054backed No | 65c | 125$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…b1b4backed No | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…0a3ebacked Yes | 36c | 115.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ce…6ce0backed No | 65c | 115$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 35c | 113.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb134…3e8abacked No | 65c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed Yes | 44c | 109.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71da…35adbacked No | 65c | 107.92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb741…b462backed No | 65c | 105$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ee…5796backed No | 65c | 105$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f7…382ebacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed No | 40c | 92.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb756…8a10backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…5146backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3051…f50cbacked Yes | 36c | 78.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 62c | 73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b2…0d0fbacked Yes | 36c | 72.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…ab13backed Yes | 53c | 70.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6858…9b50backed Yes | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a5…6d35backed No | 65c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc739…216bbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…3476backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe169…698bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…6437backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cee…bb0fbacked Yes | 62c | 40.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…4f2bbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff0…664cbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed No | 66c | 38.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7369…de14backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac7…9ab1backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Yes | 32c | 32.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a91…a66bbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +176.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48dd…1391backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bde…a062backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a26…9d3cbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6e…fc68backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed No | 65c | 27.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -8.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 66c | 23.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | -13.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Italy beat Germanythis page
- Will Germany beat ItalyYes won
- Will Italy vs. Germany end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.