Fifa International · resolved market
Will Italy vs. Germany end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x712ad14a2c61d8a05677fa62522b03381ea340fd1d09b35aa74bb7b87a841ac6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe151…d3c4backed Yes | 30c | 495$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 37c | 447.19$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 68c | 264$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked No | 69c | 260.81$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa865…a2c3backed No | 70c | 255$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4acb…9323backed Yes | 30c | 245$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa94e…c540backed No | 70c | 235$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 31c | 225$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 37c | 197$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…0a3ebacked Yes | 31c | 175$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 31c | 143.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd530…9a0cbacked Yes | 30c | 135$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed No | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 76cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 32c | 110.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7836…9560backed No | 70c | 105$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked No | 69c | 93.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbef…ca7ebacked Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fff…214bbacked No | 70c | 85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 68c | 66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 40c | 51.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 80c | 51.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac7…9ab1backed No | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 30c | 41.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe0…511dbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…3075backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2861…b1a7backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…fe8bbacked Yes | 47c | 32.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfe…b99fbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ff…835dbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e87…784fbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…75e2backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffba…1dbabacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -8.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dca…9130backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | -13.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…e690backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Italy vs. Germany end in a draw?this page
- Will Germany beat ItalyYes won
- Will Italy beat GermanyNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.