Fifa International · resolved market
Will Germany beat Italy
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50e51680fb8892d5dfd89e95a572340ae4cc9dfd08db89e7ffbe28414d151663
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 67c | 17,691$11,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,910.59 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 27c | 10,818$2,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,897.31 | 103 | 66%68 W · 35 L | +12.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bf45backed Yes | 31c | 7,964$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,463.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…b6ddbacked Yes | 37c | 4,020$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…410ebacked Yes | 37c | 2,821$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,779.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 52c | 2,619$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.16 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked No | 64c | 1,783$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 63c | 1,715$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.22 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 64c | 1,664$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.51 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked No | 65c | 1,406$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe39b…67e6backed Yes | 19c | 1,055$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 64c | 1,047$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Yes | 36c | 978.19$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 66c | 888$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 36c | 863.29$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.45 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 63c | 762.99$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.69 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea33…539bbacked Yes | 36c | 733.53$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +90%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 22c | 716.68$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1c9ebacked Yes | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 36c | 487.08$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.73 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 37c | 448.9$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.81 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 36c | 446.61$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 64c | 418.98$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.84 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 36c | 399$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.36 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc6…bef1backed Yes | 35c | 382.42$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +201.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked No | 65c | 344.99$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…0a3ebacked Yes | 27c | 333.33$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 64c | 310$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.4 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb54…6e4bbacked Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe483…b5a0backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…b2d1backed Yes | 36c | 275.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +179.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…df5cbacked Yes | 37c | 270.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.43 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb895…ffe4backed Yes | 48c | 270$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 37c | 210.63$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…e4d2backed No | 66c | 180.68$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 68c | 152.75$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.86 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 68c | 152.37$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.29 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 34c | 146$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…3afcbacked Yes | 35c | 143$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…2051backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 31c | 125$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 50c | 116.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…8520backed No | 65c | 115.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f22…a26ebacked Yes | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 36c | 108.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba6…f2a8backed Yes | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 64c | 105$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | -13.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3b…0061backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +145.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8011…e98ebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.44per pick | 43cpaid | +154.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x14f6…6e92backed Yes | 36c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +181.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked No | 65c | 98.11$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb474…a4bcbacked No | 64c | 95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed No | 66c | 83.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…cf91backed Yes | 36c | 82.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 214 | 44.4%95 W · 119 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3051…f50cbacked No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 64c | 69.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ac…087abacked Yes | 36c | 66.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 36c | 63.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00dd…edcebacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0f…addabacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…64a0backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…2b37backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…5ddcbacked No | 65c | 47.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.9wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 67c | 46.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 229 | 59.4%136 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked No | 64c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -8.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25dd…1a7bbacked No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6034…5aa9backed Yes | 36c | 43.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…4935backed Yes | 35c | 39.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfe…b99fbacked Yes | 33c | 30.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Yes | 48c | 21.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Germany beat Italythis page
- Will Italy beat GermanyNo won
- Will Italy vs. Germany end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.