Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Will a 14, 15, or 16 seed win in first round of NCAA Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf6c5aa22de865f190bce9edc6543d74d39f4faba2c3877a74783226cbf046b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked No | 56c | 5,288$2,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,332.99 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 39c | 4,387$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.5 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked No | 54c | 2,856$1,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.69 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ed…bf93backed Yes | 46c | 2,856$1,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0b…9e5cbacked No | 55c | 2,792$1,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.44 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Yes | 42c | 2,780$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.35 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed Yes | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 55c | 1,112$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -70%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4116…779dbacked Yes | 45c | 1,100$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4191…9538backed No | 55c | 499.98$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…7021backed Yes | 45c | 453$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Yes | 44c | 419.84$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.41 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8e…66bfbacked No | 69c | 290.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 75c | 280$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 98 | 33.7%33 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Yes | 29c | 190.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed No | 61c | 170.63$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked No | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Yes | 36c | 29.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.