F1 · resolved market
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8158613e158529e706c76cebd5409de90bccd6e2203a73754e87041bb5b75017
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcabc…19b1backed Yes | 22c | 6,138$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 78c | 3,516$2,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.2 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 77c | 3,397$2,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.62 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 78c | 1,327$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.62 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +49%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6ba6backed Yes | 30c | 1,009$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…be05backed Yes | 19c | 599.97$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4af2…4a6fbacked Yes | 18c | 594.61$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.03 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 19c | 570.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.85 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1750…dce6backed Yes | 21c | 565$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 78c | 436.34$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.92 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 3c | 409.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 17c | 394.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd99…df91backed Yes | 18c | 376.37$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +72%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 79c | 333.28$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e17…f00ebacked Yes | 36c | 272.1$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb54…6e4bbacked Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 79c | 239.16$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 24c | 236.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 21c | 205.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…1b22backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 17c | 176.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Yes | 16c | 153$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…7667backed Yes | 20c | 147.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3df0…48f0backed Yes | 20c | 143$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…8b56backed Yes | 21c | 121.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 74c | 103.16$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 80c | 102$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…72b6backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…8f61backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…fc37backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…a35cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 51c | 90.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 75c | 88.85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…23cebacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 17c | 76.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 159 | 22%35 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa182…51f3backed Yes | 22c | 69.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 30c | 66.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c7…e97ebacked Yes | 24c | 60.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6f…204dbacked Yes | 19c | 56.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…9e6cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c3…cff8backed Yes | 22c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 74c | 35.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4474…2b14backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…9c72backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint?Yes won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.