F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x497e5921b0eca5e6ce66a689875e04b9e60ca551c5e3766660fe3ee388c12491
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 16c | 13,481$2,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,156.68 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 16c | 700$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcabc…19b1backed Yes | 48c | 447.13$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed No | 50c | 434.66$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 46c | 423.18$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 50c | 358.15$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 24c | 309.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.83 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 45c | 264.2$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.62 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 48c | 243.03$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.16 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a8…5df3backed Yes | 47c | 229.56$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.39 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59a2…1f0bbacked Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 9c | 205.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 67c | 200.2$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ec…2b21backed Yes | 28c | 197.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 45c | 189.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 47c | 174.07$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.01 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 53c | 144.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.96 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 28c | 110.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7996…3fa2backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d9…fcb6backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…f10ebacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 64cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed No | 52c | 99.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…01ccbacked No | 54c | 99.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1457…e1f6backed Yes | 46c | 86.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…b17ebacked Yes | 36c | 83.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…b594backed Yes | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…ae0fbacked No | 52c | 69.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd36e…f9adbacked Yes | 51c | 48.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Yes | 43c | 45.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb25…0e5bbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…e162backed Yes | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461d…5d12backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint?Yes won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.