NFL · resolved market
Will 2 QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe975f33a776ba1642efe33d70d38d2cbd7055ac2698165900b855b05002f13f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 49c | 7,478$3,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,666.05 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked No | 62c | 3,913$2,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,506.3 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…8a79backed Yes | 1c | 3,547$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 18c | 2,220$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.53 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +9.9wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | +235.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x25a1…67b0backed Yes | 4c | 2,200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 24c | 2,001$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,512.47 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 2c | 1,750$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 10c | 1,252$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.36 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 63c | 1,241$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.92 | 129 | 34.9%45 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…9f4abacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…1081backed No | 68c | 939.08$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.51 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 647.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 24c | 441.96$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.77 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4696…6a7dbacked Yes | 17c | 315.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 36c | 307.37$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.36 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 25c | 274.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 30c | 221$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 36c | 210$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…27bbbacked Yes | 45c | 205$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa6…78e8backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 40c | 193.1$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.52 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2db4…410fbacked Yes | 40c | 165$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 12c | 156.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed Yes | 51c | 125.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb907…63f2backed Yes | 18c | 122.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…8194backed Yes | 33c | 119.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 66c | 108.12$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…7d91backed Yes | 40c | 102.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842c…2e53backed Yes | 10c | 100.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 36c | 97.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 33c | 86.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed Yes | 56c | 85.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 76c | 84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 65c | 81.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 40c | 74.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 45c | 74.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…168abacked Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 61c | 70.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 39c | 68.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6f…c76cbacked Yes | 23c | 67.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 73c | 62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 30c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b1…4702backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 58cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf59c…115bbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 38.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 65c | 28.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 23.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed No | 59c | 22.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 52c | 20.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4a…0502backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 2 QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?this page
- Will 1 QB get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?Yes won
- Will 3 QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will zero QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.