NFL · resolved market
Will 1 QB get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda08945237f96189164d980944cb84dac6f23e0797f5becae637ec088f367f25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 57c | 4,748$2,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,039.21 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…1081backed Yes | 68c | 1,116$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.16 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…8bd5backed Yes | 65c | 854$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked No | 42c | 772.68$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.02 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed No | 44c | 447.35$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8550…90f7backed Yes | 65c | 330.25$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 43c | 311.63$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.07 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 43c | 307.37$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.55 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed No | 29c | 253.7$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 58c | 171$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 129 | 34.9%45 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db8…6935backed No | 33c | 132.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd54c…4ad6backed No | 62c | 122.41$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 76c | 112.87$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 62c | 108.58$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 57c | 105.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 23c | 105.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 36c | 74.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 47c | 74.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 32c | 44.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 58cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 80c | 39.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 71c | 30.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7167…8ea3backed No | 77c | 29.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…96d5backed Yes | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…f663backed Yes | 74c | 17.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Yes | 64c | 16.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1 QB get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?this page
- Will 2 QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will 3 QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will zero QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.