Fifa International · resolved market
Will Denmark beat Portugal?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde4a248f190427d7c260ccfc62eeba7b339539b0f566a93eb99bd3762effb52d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3078…3e11backed Yes | 28c | 3,060$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,203.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed No | 72c | 2,300$1,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 29c | 1,798$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.59 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 25c | 1,448$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.29 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe060…fda8backed No | 75c | 1,267$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 23c | 892.86$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.9 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 77c | 638.59$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.37 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 72c | 555.05$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.71 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 73c | 547.95$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…2492backed Yes | 78c | 509.27$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…03c2backed Yes | 21c | 450$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Yes | 80c | 340$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 72c | 252$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.44 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb474…a4bcbacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 24c | 164.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e1…c9eabacked Yes | 28c | 117.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +259.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked No | 72c | 111$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 76cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…5cdbbacked No | 74c | 99.76$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 73c | 70.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 72c | 63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 26c | 41.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 74c | 41.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…5ffcbacked No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…dcc7backed No | 73c | 39.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed No | 75c | 33.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…28d5backed No | 73c | 26.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 281 | 48.4%136 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe875…0137backed No | 73c | 22.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -8.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 72c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | -13.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…5ddcbacked No | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.9wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Denmark beat Portugal?this page
- Will Denmark vs. Portugal end in a draw?No won
- Will Portugal beat Denmark?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.