F1 · resolved market
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40caa8bf222c67821467f5ffda11313d9bc312b014deaa21100b31c63c5b7871
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 16c | 1,586$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.77 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 77c | 1,451$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.81 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +49%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 23c | 1,250$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.5 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,082$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 6c | 683.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af2…4a6fbacked Yes | 20c | 675.08$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 22c | 649.06$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.66 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 20c | 558.8$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.27 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaed1…9116backed Yes | 7c | 543.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 21c | 472.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 159 | 22%35 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc82…c7c5backed No | 79c | 458.41$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae3…592ebacked Yes | 24c | 434.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…72b6backed Yes | 5c | 386.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cd…d392backed Yes | 6c | 381.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…8b56backed Yes | 6c | 287.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes | 5c | 269.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 5c | 252.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…6768backed Yes | 12c | 222.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 22c | 222.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…afd6backed Yes | 26c | 193.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb25…0e5bbacked Yes | 9c | 163$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…7667backed Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…35d9backed Yes | 25c | 126.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…8f61backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…5385backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7f…81e6backed Yes | 24c | 111.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 15c | 110$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…ec52backed Yes | 17c | 95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 14c | 89.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa182…51f3backed Yes | 15c | 83.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Yes | 18c | 74.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 75c | 71.48$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…7325backed Yes | 18c | 66.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 72c | 64.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x271f…b8ebbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f8…d7aabacked Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f9…4441backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9a…62f5backed Yes | 40c | 37.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…3a25backed No | 51c | 30.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Alexander Albon win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Carlos Sainz Jr. win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Jack Doohan win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Liam Lawson win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Nico Hülkenberg win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oliver Bearman win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Pierre Gasly win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will another drive win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.