F1 · resolved market
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c7996eb20b89cd13a8a614f493898221db1801f2b9768faffa42c3104e7cbbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 15c | 17,457$2,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,685.01 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 12c | 6,090$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.48 | 92 | 23.9%22 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 18c | 6,064$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.08 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 12c | 3,608$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.91 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Yes | 16c | 3,175$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 18c | 2,202$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.73 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 15c | 2,048$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcabc…19b1backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 12c | 1,759$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.31 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Yes | 16c | 1,500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.48 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…5241backed Yes | 20c | 987.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 15c | 928.83$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.22 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f2…bbc2backed Yes | 18c | 851.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cee…bf2dbacked Yes | 23c | 808.98$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b15…569abacked Yes | 18c | 749.46$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.23 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…0ac5backed Yes | 16c | 744.53$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…8f61backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 17c | 600$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 17c | 597.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.21 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked No | 80c | 517.8$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.56 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed No | 80c | 514.4$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 20c | 513.83$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 20c | 398.7$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…bfacbacked Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…aaf2backed Yes | 14c | 346.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 20c | 316.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…d072backed Yes | 16c | 299.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfafa…3947backed Yes | 29c | 285$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 20c | 262.1$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 78c | 258.5$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 252.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 73c | 234.31$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc827…de79backed Yes | 13c | 225$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fd…1e36backed Yes | 16c | 222.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f8…4dc3backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Yes | 19c | 195.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 13c | 195$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cd…d392backed Yes | 19c | 153.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb54…6e4bbacked Yes | 24c | 150.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b4…bb83backed Yes | 20c | 140.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 76c | 140$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 16c | 135$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5103…9fdcbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Yes | 15c | 129.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6802…3f97backed Yes | 17c | 127.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a4…7937backed Yes | 20c | 126$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1750…e7b6backed Yes | 21c | 121.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…7bd9backed Yes | 21c | 116.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 33cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…be05backed Yes | 19c | 115$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed Yes | 16c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14a2…e231backed Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b66…2d68backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed1…9116backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d13…4656backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f4…7700backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 28c | 97.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…4defbacked Yes | 16c | 87.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9331…f494backed Yes | 17c | 79.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f6…d035backed Yes | 21c | 78.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…1b22backed Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ab…2f52backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…1744backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…5385backed Yes | 37c | 53.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 28c | 50.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…ec33backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bda…9966backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 79c | 47.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ee…c3b9backed Yes | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…fdf4backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Alexander Albon win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Carlos Sainz Jr. win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Jack Doohan win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Liam Lawson win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Nico Hülkenberg win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oliver Bearman win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Pierre Gasly win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will another drive win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.