NFL · resolved market
Will Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders be drafted 1st and 2nd?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x548c9debd0d3f4c26319629d79fdfb36e4211376603411f5c80cc8f0531fcdc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 5c | 6,638$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.68 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 21c | 2,245$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.17 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 22c | 652.96$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 399$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 69c | 375.14$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.29 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213b…fe55backed Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 19c | 190$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 70c | 113.64$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 100.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 30c | 93.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked Yes | 19c | 93.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 79.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…e02fbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…f2ddbacked No | 69c | 43.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 38c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…e6c9backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…2d2cbacked No | 71c | 25.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.