Music · resolved market
Will Azerbaijan qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x606385e9bf91f5b8ee5e9da9aaf87fe84cf060622a3bf98839251aef1f1cbd5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 21c | 5,425$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.54 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 74c | 3,145$2,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.61 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda9b…95f8backed Yes | 12c | 1,689$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x863d…4770backed Yes | 18c | 1,160$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 26c | 840.99$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.67 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5b…23cabacked Yes | 39c | 820.64$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.08 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 17c | 807.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.12 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed No | 74c | 752.53$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.93 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes | 40c | 749.8$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed No | 67c | 623.62$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.64 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed No | 75c | 578.05$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.03 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes | 31c | 477.4$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.3 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 36c | 381.91$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.99 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 79c | 322.18$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked No | 78c | 309.81$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed No | 77c | 291.75$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed No | 57c | 287.53$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.64 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 77c | 258.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 78c | 254.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 72c | 236$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 79c | 228.56$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe009…4430backed Yes | 14c | 200.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb39…c696backed Yes | 22c | 181$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2e…d01cbacked Yes | 39c | 131$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 79c | 115$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…f860backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a9…0d55backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…c1b8backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 28cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 80c | 91.55$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 77c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed No | 58c | 80.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fa…d16dbacked Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 67c | 79.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 74c | 77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 39c | 70.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…f529backed Yes | 30c | 67.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 80c | 60.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…d8afbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd794…efe1backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 59c | 43.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 63c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 69c | 40.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ac…c8fcbacked No | 71c | 35.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 34c | 31.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 28.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 24.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Azerbaijan qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?this page
- Will Albania qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Belgium qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Croatia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Cyprus qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Iceland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Norway qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Poland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Portugal qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will San Marino qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Slovenia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Ukraine qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.